2011 Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M vs LSU By: Richard O'Malley – Friday, January 7th, 2011 Tonight's Cotton Bowl matchup featuring #17 Texas A&M vs #10 LSU should end up being one of the better bowl games to watch during this bowl season. Texas A&M comes into tonights game with a 9-3 overall record and 8-4 ATS with 6 overs and 6 unders to their credit. Among Texas A&M's notable victories are a home win against Nebraska and a home win against eventual Big 12 champions Oklahoma. The LSU Tigers of the SEC come into tonights game with a 10-2 overall record but an underachieving 5-7 ATS with 4 overs and 8 unders. LSU's only two losses were to Auburn and Arkansas. Two of LSUs notable wins were a home win against defending National Champions Alabama and a road win at Florida. Texas A&M Wins If - Texas A&M is a very balanced team. They are averaging 281.8 passing yards per game and 169.2 rushing yards per game. They can beat you through the air or pound the ball on the ground. I would actually expect LSU to clog up the middle and force Texas A&M to attempt to run the ball to the outside rather than straight up the gut, which may prove difficult with LSU's SEC speed. If Texas A&M can establish a run game through, Cyrus Gray, it should help them in the pass game, but LSU's corners (mainly Patrick Peterson) are terrific so even if they do throw the ball I would think its a lot of short yardage passes and screens. Tannehill will need to continue being great; he has only started 5 games this season, but has 1,434 yards with 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. Special teams may also be a factor. They should not kick the ball on punts to LSU, they should always kick it out of bounds if they can. Texas A&M's kickers are not that great and will need to aviod making any kicking mistakes if they hope to win the Cotton Bowl. The key will lie in their defense. The Texas A&M defense needs to force LSU turnovers and get to Jordan Jefferson as often as they can. Jordan Jefferson is the primary quarterback in Les Miles two quarterback system. However, both of LSU's QBs have trouble with not turning th eball over, as they have combined for only 6 touchdowns but 11 interceptions. 10 of those 11 interceptions can be credited to Jordan Jefferson. That said if Texas A&M can create turnovers and stop the run game, then they can beat the LSU Tigers. LSU Wins If - Texas A&M leaks yards through the air on defense, giving up 240.5 yards per game against the pass. However, LSU does not throw the ball often. Typically LSU will try and setup the pass through their running plays but even when they do that they still do not pass all to often, perhaps that will change tonight. Texas A&M's defense is really good at stopping the run only giving up 169 yards per game on the ground, so the key to victory may lie in the hands of Jordan Jefferson tonight. This may be a good thing as in the last 3 games LSU has thrown the ball for an average of 182.3 yards and for more yardage than they have rushed the ball. On defense LSU will need to stop, Cyrus Gray, who has put together 6 straight over 100 yard rushing games. If they can stop Cyrus Gray, they will force Texas A&M to throw the ball up against LUS's great corners. Another important factor is Les Miles, assuming he can show good clock management. I would expect Les Miles to run some trick plays from time to time in this game and also find opportunities to go for it on 4th down. If Patrick Peterson, LSUs outstanding CB, can have a good shut down game and Les Miles can pull some good plays from his bag of tricks and LSU can keep running their two-quarterback system well, they should be able to beat Texas A&M. The Verdict - In their last 3 games Texas A&M have scored an average of 25 points and has averaged 369 total yards of offense per game, LSU has scored an average of 39 points per game and have averaged 356 total yards of offense per game. The defenses have given up 17.7 points per game (Texas A&M) & 22.3 points per game (LSU) on average, last 3 games. I expect a crazy but very entertaining game. I expect both teams to move the ball after a feeling out / rusty period where the defenses may have control early. I expect some turnovers and teams to go for it on 4th downs and even the occassional trick play. With all that and other unmentioned factors in mind I will recommend taking the Over 49 Total Points (-110) {5 Dimes}, as always good luck to all! Get our pick for the winner of this game and other games on today's One Day Pass!